{"success":true,"data":{"slug":"gas-prices-vs-crashes","title":"Colorado Gas Prices vs. Crashes","description":"Monthly Colorado crash counts, injuries, fatalities, and EIA gas prices from CrashStory and EIA.","publicRoute":"/research/gas-prices-vs-car-accidents","latestOutputDate":"2026-03-15","reportFilename":"gas-prices-vs-crashes-report.json","datasets":[{"dataset":"analysis_window","description":"Formal Colorado monthly analysis window used for the gas-price models.","filename":"analysis-window-colorado-gas-vs-crashes.json","stateField":null,"yearField":null,"monthField":"month","defaultLimit":60,"maxLimit":120},{"dataset":"full_window","description":"Full merged monthly Colorado window from CrashStory and EIA.","filename":"merged-colorado-gas-vs-crashes.json","stateField":null,"yearField":null,"monthField":"month","defaultLimit":60,"maxLimit":120}],"report":{"generatedAt":"2026-03-15T11:30:30","config":{"baseUrl":"https://crashstory.com","analysisStartRequested":"2023-01","monthsRequested":60},"crashstory":{"totalCrashes":593392,"totalInjuries":123448,"totalFatalities":3178,"dataAsOf":"2026-02-26","comparisonLabel":"Trailing 12 months vs prior 12 months"},"sources":{"eiaColoradoReleaseDate":"3/10/2026","eiaUsReleaseDate":"3/10/2026"},"dataWindows":{"availableStart":"2021-04","availableEnd":"2026-02","latestFullMonth":"2026-01","analysisStart":"2023-01","analysisEnd":"2026-01"},"structuralBreakCheck":{"early_window_avg_crashes":1486.8,"later_window_avg_crashes":9953.4,"note":"CrashStory monthly counts step up sharply in 2023, so the formal models default to 2023-01 onward."},"analysisSummary":{"analysisMonths":37,"laggedModelMonths":36,"yoyObservationCount":25,"averageMonthly":{"crashes":10096.81,"injuries":3152.92,"fatalities":70.76},"gasPriceRange":{"average":3.18,"min":2.34,"max":4},"laggedEffectShareOfTypicalMonthPct":{"crashes":1.74,"injuries":2,"fatalities":3.32},"highestLaggedGasMonth":{"month":"2023-03","laggedGasPrice":4},"lowestLaggedGasMonth":{"month":"2026-01","laggedGasPrice":2.34},"rawQuartileComparison":{"bottomQuartileMaxLaggedGasPrice":2.94,"topQuartileMinLaggedGasPrice":3.37,"monthsPerSide":9,"bottomQuartileAverageMonthly":{"crashes":9773.3,"injuries":2867.1,"fatalities":53},"topQuartileAverageMonthly":{"crashes":10434.6,"injuries":3356.3,"fatalities":79.1},"note":"This is an unadjusted split. It is useful for showing why raw comparisons can mislead, because high-gas months also tend to land in higher-travel spring and summer periods."}},"correlations":{"crashes":[{"lag_months":0,"correlation":0.1705},{"lag_months":1,"correlation":0.2973},{"lag_months":2,"correlation":0.3319},{"lag_months":3,"correlation":0.4552}],"injuries":[{"lag_months":0,"correlation":0.3633},{"lag_months":1,"correlation":0.4216},{"lag_months":2,"correlation":0.3549},{"lag_months":3,"correlation":0.3365}],"fatalities":[{"lag_months":0,"correlation":0.4379},{"lag_months":1,"correlation":0.3657},{"lag_months":2,"correlation":0.2518},{"lag_months":3,"correlation":0.0426}]},"yoyCorrelations":{"crashes":-0.5392,"injuries":-0.6088,"fatalities":-0.1589},"models":{"crashes_same_month":{"coef_per_usd":-1324.76,"coef_per_10c":-132.48,"pvalue":0.002,"r2":0.725,"nobs":37},"crashes_lag1":{"coef_per_usd":-1758.83,"coef_per_10c":-175.88,"pvalue":0,"r2":0.7758,"nobs":36},"injuries_same_month":{"coef_per_usd":-542.21,"coef_per_10c":-54.22,"pvalue":0,"r2":0.8663,"nobs":37},"injuries_lag1":{"coef_per_usd":-630.25,"coef_per_10c":-63.03,"pvalue":0,"r2":0.8838,"nobs":36},"fatalities_same_month":{"coef_per_usd":-6.89,"coef_per_10c":-0.69,"pvalue":0.3341,"r2":0.758,"nobs":37},"fatalities_lag1":{"coef_per_usd":-23.55,"coef_per_10c":-2.35,"pvalue":0.0001,"r2":0.8142,"nobs":36}},"sourceCapabilities":{"tomtom":{"configured":true,"sample_station_count":15,"search_includes_price_fields":false,"fuel_price_lookup_with_station_id_status":404,"note":"TomTom search returns station metadata and fuel types. Official docs expose a separate Fuel Prices API, but the search responses in this workspace do not expose price values or a directly reusable fuelPriceId."},"mapbox":{"configured":true,"sample_station_count":15,"search_includes_price_fields":false,"note":"Mapbox category search returns station metadata, branding, hours, and contact details, but no fuel price values."}},"sourceLinks":{"EIA Colorado weekly gas prices":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMRU_PTE_SCO_DPG&f=W","EIA U.S. weekly gas prices":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMRU_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W","EIA gasoline dashboard":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/index.php","TomTom Fuel Prices API docs":"https://developer.tomtom.com/fuel-prices-api/documentation/fuel-prices-api/fuel-prices-api","TomTom Fuel Prices coverage":"https://developer.tomtom.com/fuel-prices-api/coverage/fuel-prices-coverage","Mapbox Search Box category search docs":"https://docs.mapbox.com/api/search/search-box/#category-search"},"findings":["After month-of-year controls and a linear trend, a 10-cent rise in Colorado gas prices one month earlier is associated with about 176 fewer crashes (p=<0.0001).","The same-month crash model also points negative, at roughly 132 fewer crashes per 10-cent increase (p=0.002).","The lagged fatality model also points negative, at about 2.4 fewer fatalities per 10-cent increase one month earlier (p=0.0001), but fatalities are rarer and this build still does not adjust for miles driven, so that estimate is more fragile than the crash-count result.","Year-over-year gas-price changes and crash-count changes are negatively correlated (-0.54), which supports the discretionary-driving hypothesis more than the raw same-month correlations do.","The raw correlations are not enough on their own because gas prices and crash counts both move seasonally. The adjusted models are the more important read."],"limitations":["This build uses CrashStory crash counts, injuries, and fatalities, not exposure-normalized crash rates per mile driven.","The public CrashStory monthly series only exposes the most recent 60 months, and the count level steps up in 2023, so the formal models default to 2023-01 onward.","TomTom provides current station discovery and documents a fuel-prices product, but we do not have historical station-level fuel price snapshots in the current stack.","Mapbox station discovery is useful for POI lookup and routing, not fuel prices.","The current outputs show association, not causation. Weather, commuting patterns, the economy, and enforcement can all affect crash counts alongside gas prices."],"artifacts":["C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\merged-colorado-gas-vs-crashes.csv","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\analysis-window-colorado-gas-vs-crashes.csv","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\merged-colorado-gas-vs-crashes.json","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\analysis-window-colorado-gas-vs-crashes.json","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\tomtom-station-sample.csv","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\mapbox-station-sample.csv","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\chart-colorado-vs-us-gas-prices.png","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\chart-colorado-gas-crashes-fatalities-index.png","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\chart-colorado-gas-lag-correlations.png","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\chart-colorado-gas-vs-crashes-yoy.png","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\chart-colorado-gas-vs-crashes-yoy-scatter.png","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\chart-colorado-effect-context.png","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\gas-prices-vs-crashes-report.json","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-crashes\\2026-03-15\\gas-prices-vs-crashes-report.md"]}}}