{"success":true,"data":{"slug":"gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national","title":"National Gas Prices vs. Traffic Fatalities","description":"State-year panel of gas prices, fatalities, fatal crashes, and VMT from EIA, NHTSA FARS, and FHWA.","publicRoute":"/research/national-gas-prices-vs-traffic-fatalities","latestOutputDate":"2026-03-15","reportFilename":"national-gas-prices-vs-fatalities-report.json","datasets":[{"dataset":"state_year_panel","description":"State-year panel of fatalities, fatal crashes, gas prices, and VMT.","filename":"state-year-gas-fatalities-panel.json","stateField":"state_abbr","yearField":"year","monthField":null,"defaultLimit":100,"maxLimit":1000},{"dataset":"state_year_yoy","description":"State-year panel with year-over-year gas and fatality change fields.","filename":"state-year-gas-fatalities-yoy.json","stateField":"state_abbr","yearField":"year","monthField":null,"defaultLimit":100,"maxLimit":1000},{"dataset":"state_profiles","description":"One row per state 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tality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end":-9.42,"gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end":-0.44,"gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation":0.2159}],"largestFatalityRateRises":[{"state_abbr":"DC","fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end":106.42,"gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end":34.67,"gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation":-0.8508},{"state_abbr":"WA","fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end":77.72,"gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end":23.28,"gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation":-0.2584},{"state_abbr":"OR","fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end":71.7,"gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end":21.14,"gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation":-0.4289},{"state_abbr":"WY","fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end":61.87,"gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end":6.98,"gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation":-0.0166},{"state_abbr":"CA","fatality_rate_change_pct_start_to_end":36.04,"gas_price_change_pct_start_to_end":24.32,"gas_price_vs_fatality_rate_yoy_correlation":-0.2708}]},"descriptiveSummary":{"averageUsFatalityRatePer100mVmt":1.205,"averageUsGasPriceMmbtu":23.91,"peakGasYear":{"year":2022,"gasPriceMmbtu":32.41,"fatalityRatePer100mVmt":1.337},"troughGasYear":{"year":2020,"gasPriceMmbtu":18.01,"fatalityRatePer100mVmt":1.347},"changeFromStartToEndPct":{"gasPrice":1.43,"fatalityRate":14.17},"stateYoyCorrelationDistribution":{"stateCount":51,"negativeSharePct":80.4,"positiveSharePct":19.6,"mean":-0.237,"median":-0.239,"q25":-0.431,"q75":-0.096}},"findings":["In the state fixed-effects plus time-trend model, a 10% increase in gasoline prices is associated with about 0.2% lower fatality rates per 100M VMT (p=0.3633).","In the U.S.-only annual time-series model, a 10% increase in gasoline prices is associated with about 0.6% lower national fatality rates per 100M VMT (p=0.5093).","In the stricter state-and-year fixed-effects model, the sign flips: a 10% increase in gasoline prices is associated with about 2.1% higher fatality rates (p=0.4338). That spec only uses within-year state price differences, so it is not the same question as a national gas shock.","Across within-state year-over-year changes, gas-price changes and fatality-rate changes are correlated at -0.18.","The highest U.S. gas-price year in the panel is 2022 at 32.41, while the lowest is 2020 at 18.01. The national fatality rate is almost the same in those two years: 1.337 versus 1.347 per 100M VMT.","At the state level, 80.4% of states have a negative year-over-year gas-vs-fatality-rate correlation, but the spread is still wide enough that the national model results stay weak and unstable.","Bottom line: the national fatality data do not reproduce the strong Colorado crash-count drop. At the national level the relationship is weak, specification-sensitive, and not statistically decisive."],"limitations":["The national build covers fatal crashes and fatalities, not all crashes.","Gas prices come from EIA's annual state motor-gasoline price series in dollars per million Btu, not weekly pump-price snapshots.","FHWA VMT is an annual state exposure measure, so the model is state-year rather than monthly.","The state-and-year fixed-effects spec answers a narrower question than a national gas shock because it uses relative state price differences within the same year.","All three model families still show association rather than proof of causation.","Pandemic-era mobility shifts and state policy differences can still affect fatality outcomes alongside gas prices."],"sourceLinks":{"NHTSA FARS information":"https://www.nhtsa.gov/research-data/fatality-analysis-reporting-system-fars","FARS 2023 national CSV zip":"https://static.nhtsa.gov/nhtsa/downloads/FARS/2023/National/FARS2023NationalCSV.zip","FHWA VM-2 table (2023)":"https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2023/vm2.cfm","EIA state gasoline prices workbook":"https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/sep_sum/html/xls/pr_ex_mg.xlsx"},"artifacts":["C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-year-gas-fatalities-panel.csv","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-year-gas-fatalities-yoy.csv","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\national-gas-fatalities-summary.csv","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-year-gas-fatalities-panel.json","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-year-gas-fatalities-yoy.json","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\national-gas-fatalities-summary.json","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-gas-fatality-profiles.csv","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\state-gas-fatality-profiles.json","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\chart-us-gas-vs-fatality-rate-index.png","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\chart-state-year-gas-vs-fatality-rate-yoy.png","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\chart-colorado-vs-us-fatality-rate.png","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\chart-national-model-comparison.png","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\chart-state-correlation-distribution.png","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\national-gas-prices-vs-fatalities-report.json","C:\\repos\\crashstory-platform\\docs\\research\\outputs\\gas-prices-vs-fatalities-national\\2026-03-15\\national-gas-prices-vs-fatalities-report.md"]}}}